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Ex-GOP strategist Rick Wilson recently predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will secure a comfortable victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Wilson’s forecast is rooted in current polling trends and the intensified polarization of U.S. electoral politics. He believes the Republicans will react poorly to the outcome, even suggesting they will claim the election was rigged, regardless of the legitimacy of the results. Wilson described the post-election atmosphere as “very, very ugly,” especially given the growing distrust in America’s election system and the rhetoric exhibited by prominent GOP figures in recent elections. This mirrors what happened after the 2020 election, where Donald Trump and many of his allies spread baseless claims of voter fraud — claims that were debunked in court and rejected by multiple states.
Wilson, formerly a strategist for the Republican Party turned critic of Trumpism, has been outspoken about the party’s internal struggles. He points to a divided Republican base and a leadership that has embraced, rather than moderated, Trump’s political legacy. With Donald Trump as the frontrunner for the GOP’s 2024 nomination, the party seems focused on repeating the combative and unfounded narratives it has espoused in the past, particularly regarding election integrity. According to Wilson, this will likely lead to an intense post-election environment again fueled by mistrust and grievance, regardless of whether Trump or another well-known GOP figure like Ron DeSantis clinches the nomination.
From an investor’s perspective, political uncertainty has historically led to market volatility. Both the stock and cryptocurrency markets could experience fluctuations in the lead-up to the 2024 election if tensions rise over potential election outcomes. In 2020, the major indices, including the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, saw increased volatility as investors tried to gauge the defining political shifts. Similarly, Bitcoin (BTC) and broader cryptocurrencies experienced large rallies due to increased concerns about the U.S. dollar’s value, inflation fears, and the uncertain political landscape. Should there be similar disputes or calls for recounts in 2024, investors can likely expect more disruption across financial markets.
If Harris does indeed win, the policy aftermath would be critical to track for market observers. Harris, much like President Joe Biden, generally aligns with progressive Biden administration policies rather than radical proposals. Under her leadership, similar economic agendas would likely continue, with potential expansions in green energy, technology, healthcare, and government-funded social programs. For sectors like clean energy stocks and tech stocks, this alignment could be a positive signal. However, corporations and large investors will be closely watching to see how Harris, if elected, would handle inflation, fiscal policy, and trade relations — all of which will directly impact market performance.
