- Bitcoin changed hands near $83,264 on 29 September, down about 1.4% on the day, after a rally that carried it above $87,000 earlier in the month.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped more than 18 basis points on 23 September, its biggest one-day rise since April 2025, and pushed above 5.2% the following day.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $2.39 billion in the week to 25 September, their largest weekly inflow since October 2025, according to Farside Investors.
- The 20-day EMA crossed above the 50-day EMA on the 3-day chart for the first time since November 2025, a shift that coincides with the start of the prior bear market.
- Bitcoin is now retracing the latest leg higher, with the $80,000 area and the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $81,000 serving as the key support zone.
Why the Rate Hike Barely Registered
The hike was one of the most telegraphed policy moves of the year. By the eve of the meeting, futures markets priced the increase at close to 90%, meaning much of Bitcoin’s weakness in the preceding weeks already reflected that repricing. ETF flows confirm the pattern. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed roughly $750 million across 15 and 16 September, then reversed sharply, pulling in about $2.39 billion in the week to 25 September — their biggest weekly haul since October 2025, according to Farside Investors.
The daily breakdown is instructive. Inflows ran at $999 million on Monday, then $715 million, $347 million, $191 million and $135 million on Friday. Buying never stopped; it simply shrank as yields climbed. A rate hike is a single decision with a known magnitude. A bond selloff has no defined size, because the market decides how far it runs. Yields above 5% compete directly with an asset that pays no yield, and that competition is what Bitcoin is now fighting.
The Bond Market Takes Over
On 23 September the 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 18 basis points, the largest single-day increase since April 2025. It kept climbing and rose above 5.2% the next day, the highest since 2007. The 30-year reached roughly 5.50%, a level last seen in 2004. No single trigger was responsible: strong PMI data, a weak five-year auction and higher oil prices all contributed. The Treasury even bought back $4 billion of long bonds on 24 September, and yields still rose.
There is a longer-term reading that many crypto participants favor. If the Treasury must keep borrowing at higher rates, the deficit widens and the supply of bonds grows — an argument some make for Bitcoin as a hedge. For now, though, the short-term effect is the one visible in the flows. Bitcoin is holding the move, not extending it.
What the Chart Shows
On the 3-day chart, Bitcoin broke above the $70,000 region around 20 August, consolidated near $80,000 for several weeks, then broke higher again last week. That second breakout matters: it is arguably the first higher high on the higher timeframes since the bear market began, with price reaching above $87,000 before pulling back. The moving averages support the same picture, with the 20 EMA crossing above the 50 EMA on the 3-day chart for the first time since they crossed down in November 2025.
Price is now retracing the latest leg up. The next higher-timeframe support sits at $80,000, and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from roughly $75,000 to $87,000 falls just above it, near $81,000. As long as Bitcoin holds the $80,000 area, the structure can still be read as constructive. A sustained move back below it would put that higher high into question, shifting the emphasis from identifying the rally to managing the trade as new evidence emerges.
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