Bitcoin’s Weekly RSI Divergence Preceded the Surge
Bitcoin (BTC) surged from around $64,000 to nearly $80,000 in four sessions last week, with the rally kicking off on Monday, 24 August 2026. While headlines pointed to the US Treasury’s expanded buyback operations, a White House meeting with crypto executives, and the SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets proposal, a subtler technical signal had been building for months.
Through the first half of 2026, Bitcoin made lower lows on the weekly chart, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made higher lows—a bullish divergence. This pattern, rare on a weekly timeframe, last appeared in the second half of 2022 before the bear market bottom. By 24 August, the weekly RSI had already turned upward, suggesting selling pressure was fading before any catalyst hit.
Daily RSI Mirrors January 2023 Move
The daily RSI, which sat in the low 40s through mid-August, rocketed above 80 and peaked near 90 within a week. That 40-point move in under seven days mirrors a similar pattern from December 2022 into January 2023, when RSI climbed to 87.40. The parallel is striking: a long quiet base followed by a vertical expansion in both price and momentum.
While an overbought RSI isn’t a sell signal on its own, historical instances suggest such extreme momentum shifts can mark the start of a new trend. However, the move doesn’t guarantee a bull run—momentum can stay stretched for weeks, and traders who shorted an 80 reading have often regretted it.
ETF Inflows: Strongest Week of 2026
The fundamental case rests on flows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $1.92 billion in net inflows over the five sessions to 21 August 2026, the best week of the year and the largest since October 2025, according to SoSoValue. Ethereum (ETH) funds added $697.2 million, bringing combined intake to $2.6 billion, with both categories seeing inflows on all five days—reversing a $392 million outflow the prior week.
Bitcoin also cleared its 200-day moving average near $69,000 on 24 August, the first time in nine months. Short covering has a natural end point, but ETF subscriptions represent new money, potentially more durable. However, even after this intake, Bitcoin ETFs still carry roughly $2.9 billion in net outflows for 2026 as a whole, so one week doesn’t settle the trend.
Flow Model and Leverage Dynamics
Ecoinometrics’ flow model puts Bitcoin in a supported range of roughly $67,000 to $78,000, with fair value near $72,000—leaving the current price near the top of what flows alone justify. CoinGlass data showed open interest in Bitcoin futures down 2.65% on Sunday, with funding near the 0.01% baseline, suggesting leverage is clearing out rather than reloading.
The divergence stays valid as long as price holds above the low that formed it. Beyond that, the key metric to watch this week is whether the ETF bid returns once the creation channel reopens after the weekend.
What to Watch: ETF Bid and Price Levels
Traders should monitor daily ETF flow data through the week to see if inflows persist. A sustained hold above $78,000 would confirm the bullish signal, while a break below the divergence low near $64,000 would invalidate it. Until then, the market is at a pivotal juncture: momentum and flows are aligned bullishly, but a single week of data isn’t a trend.
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