McEwen Mining Beats Q2 Estimates, Trims 2026 Production Outlook
McEwen Mining (NYSE: MUX) reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results on August 5, 2026, with revenue of $59.2 million and net income of $9.6 million, or $0.16 per share, up from $46.7 million and $0.06 per share a year earlier. The company also expanded its resource base through exploration, adding nearly 1.6 million gold ounces across its portfolio.
Despite the earnings beat, management revised full-year production guidance downward to 109,000–120,000 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) from 114,000–126,000, primarily due to challenges at the Gold Bar mine in Nevada. H.C. Wainwright analysts reiterated their Buy rating but lowered the price target to $28.00 from $29.50, citing updated long-term production estimates and the inclusion of the Grey Fox pre-feasibility study.
Organic Growth Expands Resource Base at Fox and Tartan
The key positive from the quarter was organic growth. At the Fox Complex, the Froome deposit produced 7,000 GEOs on improved grades. Exploration added 629,800 indicated and 262,000 inferred gold ounces at Windfall and Lookout Mountain, while the recently acquired Tartan Mine Project contributed 398,900 indicated and 302,700 inferred ounces.
Management reaffirmed its target of lifting annual production to 250,000–300,000 GEOs by 2030 using existing assets. H.C. Wainwright views this organic growth as a primary catalyst, noting that the company’s pipeline is robust despite near-term operational hiccups.
Gold Bar Guidance Cut on Unexpected Rock Types
The production guidance reduction is concentrated at Gold Bar, where output is now expected at 30,000–33,000 GEOs, down from 39,000–43,000. Management attributed the shortfall to “unexpected rock types that have thrown off ore estimates.” The revised guidance implies second-half output of 16,300–19,300 GEOs, a notable step up from first-half levels, but H.C. Wainwright expects further studies to clarify the site’s challenges.
Cost guidance also rose: consolidated cash costs are now $2,200–$2,450 per ounce (from $2,100–$2,300) and AISC $2,500–$2,750 (from $2,400–$2,600). Gold Bar’s cash costs jumped to $2,650–$2,950 per ounce and AISC to $2,900–$3,200. The analysts’ own model projects lower costs of $1,403 cash and $2,193 AISC for 2026, improving to $1,271 and $1,625 in 2027.
Valuation and Price Target: What’s Behind the $28 Figure
The new $28 price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation. Core assets (Black Fox, Gold Bar, San José) are valued on discounted cash flows at 13–14% discount rates. Los Azules is separately valued at $795.8 million using a 13% discount rate, though analysts stress their estimates are “purposefully conservative.” Adding cash and inventory of $106 million and deducting $126.6 million of debt yields a net asset value of $28.14 per share.
The stock closed at $18.26 on August 6, 2026, implying about 53% upside to the target. Key NAV per share components: Black Fox $6.51, Gold Bar $4.91, San José $3.45, and El Gallo $1.01, based on 62.4 million fully diluted shares.
Catalysts and Risks: Los Azules IPO and Cost Pressures
Beyond Gold Bar, analysts highlight the Grey Fox pre-feasibility study as a near-term catalyst, potentially driving future production growth. The primary catalyst remains Los Azules, where a potential intermediate-term IPO of McEwen Copper (the company retains a 46.4% interest) could unlock shareholder value given current copper prices.
Risks include commodity price volatility, operational and technical issues, political risk in Argentina (San José), financial leverage, and potential dilution. H.C. Wainwright maintains a Market Outperform rating, confident in management’s long-term outlook despite near-term cost pressures.
What to watch next: The pace of cost improvements at Gold Bar and any announcement regarding the Los Azules IPO. A definitive milestone would be the release of the Grey Fox pre-feasibility study, expected in the coming months, which could either confirm the revised guidance or prompt further adjustments.
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