Trump’s Two-Year Economic Scorecard Enters Election Test
Two years after Donald Trump swept to victory in November 2024 on pledges to fix the economy and close the border, the Financial Times has published a scorecard assessing whether those promises have been delivered. The timing matters: the US midterm elections are now less than two weeks away, on 3 November 2026, making this the final stretch in which voters will weigh the administration’s economic record.
The central claims under scrutiny are stark. Trump campaigned on ending inflation and avoiding new wars, alongside a hardline immigration agenda. The FT’s scorecard, published on 22 October 2026, evaluates each pledge. The headline framing — “No wars and no inflation” — signals the two pillars the president’s supporters point to as evidence of success.
Inflation and the Fed’s Rate Path
On inflation, the picture is nuanced. Annual consumer price growth has moderated from the multi-decade highs of 2022, when CPI peaked above 9%, but the Federal Reserve has been cautious about declaring victory. The Fed’s benchmark rate has been held in a restrictive range through 2026, with policymakers repeatedly citing services inflation and labor-market tightness as reasons to keep policy tight. Markets have priced in a slower easing cycle than many expected a year ago, keeping Treasury yields elevated and pressuring rate-sensitive sectors.
That matters for the scorecard because voters experience inflation through prices, not headline rates. Grocery and housing costs remain well above pre-2021 levels even as the pace of increase slows. The administration can claim the trend is right; opponents argue the level is not.
Border Enforcement and the Immigration Pledge
On the border, the administration has pointed to sharply reduced illegal crossings since early 2025, following executive actions and stricter asylum rules. The FT’s scorecard weighs those operational changes against the broader pledge to “close the border.” Enforcement data show encounters fell substantially from the record levels of 2023 and 2024, a measurable shift that the White House treats as a core deliverable.
Legal challenges and congressional funding fights have constrained parts of the agenda, meaning the scorecard is likely to distinguish between what was promised and what was fully implemented.
Markets Price a Divided Government Risk
Financial markets are already positioning for the 3 November midterms. The S&P 500 has traded in a relatively narrow range through October 2026, while the 10-year Treasury yield has hovered near 4.5%, reflecting uncertainty over fiscal policy and the Fed’s next move. A divided Congress would limit new legislation; a unified outcome would raise the stakes on taxes and spending.
For investors, the scorecard is less about political verdicts than about policy continuity. If inflation continues to cool and the Fed signals faster easing, rate-sensitive equities and long-duration bonds could rally. If price pressures reaccelerate, the opposite follows.
What to Watch Before 3 November
The next inflation print and the Fed’s November meeting are the key data points. A CPI reading below 2.5% year-over-year would strengthen the administration’s “no inflation” claim; a rebound above 3% would undercut it. Meanwhile, border encounter data and any court rulings on immigration enforcement will shape the enforcement narrative. The midterm outcome on 3 November is the ultimate verdict — and the number that confirms or breaks the thesis is the seat count in the House and Senate.
Sources: ft.com · Reuters · BBC · Forbes · AP News