$BTC Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3 and a prominent Bitcoin maximalist, has pushed back against the notion that the recent price surge constitutes a genuine bull market. In a series of social media posts on Friday, Mow argued that despite Bitcoin reclaiming the $79,000 level—a 22% rally from its recent local lows—the asset has yet to experience a “real” bull run. His comments come as the broader crypto market shows renewed vigor, yet Mow insists that the current price action is merely a precursor to what he considers a true parabolic phase.
Mow’s Definition of a Real Bull Run
Mow’s central thesis is that a genuine Bitcoin bull run is defined not by percentage gains from a bottom, but by a sustained breakout to new all-time highs that fundamentally alters market structure. He has frequently cited the concept of “upward-only” price action, where Bitcoin trades in a steep, uninterrupted ascent, often driven by institutional adoption and supply shocks. According to Mow, the current 22% bounce from the $65,000 support zone, while notable, lacks the velocity and volume characteristics of previous cycle peaks. He pointed to the 2020-2021 cycle, where Bitcoin went from roughly $10,000 to $69,000, as an example of a real bull run, noting that the current recovery has not yet matched that trajectory’s intensity. The Jan3 CEO also reiterated his long-standing “Omega Candle” thesis, which predicts a massive, vertical price move that will leave most traders sidelined. He argues that the current market is still in a “re-accumulation” phase, where large players are building positions before the next major leg up. Mow’s perspective is contrarian to many analysts who view the 22% recovery as the start of a new bull phase, especially given the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming halving event. However, Mow contends that ETF flows, while positive, have not yet reached the critical mass required to trigger the supply squeeze he believes is inevitable.
Market Context and the 22% Rally
The rally to $79,000 comes after a volatile two-week period where Bitcoin tested the $65,000 level multiple times. The recovery has been driven by a combination of factors, including a softer U.S. dollar index, renewed risk-on sentiment in equities, and a significant uptick in stablecoin minting. On-chain data shows that short-term holders who acquired coins near the $70,000 level have returned to profitability, reducing selling pressure. However, Mow’s critique focuses on the lack of “HODLer” conviction, noting that the market is still dominated by speculative trading rather than long-term accumulation. Mow also highlighted the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs), who have been distributing coins into the rally. He argues that a real bull run requires LTHs to hold their supply firmly, creating a scarcity effect. The current distribution, he claims, is a sign that the market is not yet in a “euphoric” state. He further noted that the global liquidity cycle, particularly the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s balance sheet decisions, has not yet aligned to produce the “liquidity flood” that characterized previous bull markets.
Contrarian Views and the Path Forward
Despite Mow’s bearish-on-the-bull-run stance, other market participants see the current setup as highly bullish. Analysts at major trading desks point to the fact that Bitcoin has reclaimed its 200-day moving average and that the weekly RSI is showing bullish divergence. Furthermore, the options market is pricing in significant upside for the fourth quarter, with call skew at its highest level since March. Mow, however, dismisses these indicators as “noise,” insisting that the true signal will come when Bitcoin breaks above its previous all-time high of $83,000 with conviction. Mow’s ultimate forecast remains unchanged: he expects Bitcoin to reach $1 million per coin in the long term, driven by nation-state adoption and the debasement of fiat currencies. He argues that the current 22% rally is a “taste” of what is to come but warns that retail investors should not mistake it for the main event. He concluded his remarks by stating that the “real” bull run will be so fast that most people will miss it, reinforcing his belief that patience, not timing, is the key to Bitcoin success. For now, the market remains in a state of cautious optimism, with Mow’s contrarian voice serving as a reminder that even in a rally, the definition of “bull” is often in the eye of the beholder.
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