- Crude oil prices slipped in early trading even as Brent held above the $100 mark.
- Kpler reported that crude flows out of the Strait of Hormuz have climbed above pre-war levels.
- Brent was trading at $102.62 a barrel, up 0.36% on the day, while West Texas Intermediate sat at $89.73.
- The Hormuz update follows a string of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and on tankers transiting the strait.
Crude oil prices moved lower in early trading on Monday, even as the global benchmark Brent crude held comfortably above the psychologically important $100 per barrel threshold. The pullback came after the commodity data firm Kpler reported that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have now risen above the levels seen before the outbreak of the conflict that disrupted regional shipping. Brent was trading at $102.62 per barrel, up 0.36% on the day, while West Texas Intermediate stood at $89.73 per barrel.
Hormuz Flows Recover Beyond Pre-War Baseline
The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important chokepoint in the global oil trade, carrying a substantial share of the world’s seaborne crude each day. Any credible disruption there tends to feed directly into futures pricing, which is why traders have tracked tanker traffic through the waterway so closely over recent weeks. Kpler’s latest assessment indicates that the volume of crude moving through the strait has not only normalized but surpassed the pre-war baseline, a signal that supply routes are functioning despite the security environment. The same firm drew attention last week when it said tanker traffic via Hormuz was approaching pre-war levels, a finding that ran counter to the prevailing narrative of escalating disruption. That earlier report landed even as Houthi attacks continued to target Saudi energy infrastructure and Iranian forces struck tankers inside the strait. The combination of persistent attacks and recovering flows has created an unusual market dynamic, with headline risk pushing prices higher while physical shipping data argues for looser conditions.
Why Prices Are Holding Above $100
Despite the bearish implications of rising Hormuz volumes, Brent has not surrendered the $100 handle. That resilience reflects the fact that the market is pricing a risk premium rather than an actual supply shortfall. Insurance costs for vessels transiting the region, rerouting decisions by shipowners, and the threat of further strikes all add a layer of cost and uncertainty that keeps a floor under prices. Traders appear reluctant to sell aggressively while the security situation remains unresolved. The spread between Brent and West Texas Intermediate also remains wide, with the international benchmark commanding a premium of roughly $13 per barrel. That gap reflects the greater sensitivity of seaborne crude to Middle East shipping conditions, while landlocked U.S. grades are more insulated from Hormuz-specific risk. A narrowing of that spread would likely signal that traders are growing more confident in the continuity of Gulf exports.
What to Watch Next
The direction of crude from here will depend largely on whether the recovery in Hormuz traffic proves durable. If flows continue to build and attacks subside, the risk premium embedded in Brent could compress, pulling prices back toward the low end of their recent range. Conversely, any fresh strike on tankers or infrastructure would quickly reverse the current softening and could push Brent back toward its recent highs. For now, the market is caught between two competing forces: improving physical supply data on one side and an unresolved security threat on the other. That tension explains why prices are drifting lower in early trading while remaining elevated in absolute terms. Investors watching energy equities and crude-linked instruments will need to weigh both signals carefully, since the headline risk that has supported prices has not disappeared simply because tanker counts have recovered.
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