Hayes Urges Investors to Stay Long Risk Assets
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes delivered a blunt message to investors on Friday, August 21, 2026, telling Crypto Banter host Ran Neuner that avoiding risk assets right now would be foolish. His comments came just after the U.S. Treasury moved to double the size of its debt buyback program, a move Hayes sees as a powerful tailwind for stocks, gold, and Bitcoin.
Hayes, known for his contrarian takes, argued that the Treasury’s expanded buybacks inject liquidity into the financial system, which historically boosts risk-on assets. He specifically pointed to Bitcoin and gold as beneficiaries, while also expressing optimism about equities in the near term.
Treasury’s Doubled Buybacks Fuel Liquidity Surge
The U.S. Treasury announced on August 20, 2026, that it would double the size of its quarterly debt buyback operations, increasing from $30 billion to $60 billion per quarter. This program, which repurchases outstanding Treasury securities, is designed to improve liquidity in the Treasury market, but Hayes argues its effects ripple far beyond bonds.
By injecting cash into the system, the Treasury effectively adds reserves that financial institutions can deploy into other assets. Hayes noted that similar buyback expansions in 2023 and 2024 preceded sharp rallies in Bitcoin and gold, citing historical data showing Bitcoin gaining 25% within three months of the last buyback increase in March 2025.
Bitcoin’s Response: Rally to $75,000
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has already responded to the news. As of Saturday, August 22, 2026, BTC is trading at $75,200, up 8% since the Treasury announcement. This move mirrors Hayes’s prediction that the liquidity boost would drive prices higher.
Hayes, who has been accumulating Bitcoin through his family office, Maelstrom, reportedly increased his holdings by 500 BTC in the week leading up to the announcement, according to on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence. While he did not confirm this directly, his public statements align with his bullish stance.
Gold Shines as Inflation Hedge Resurges
Gold also rallied, hitting an all-time high of $2,650 per ounce on August 21, 2026, before settling at $2,640. The precious metal has gained 12% year-to-date, driven by central bank buying and inflation concerns. Hayes emphasized that gold remains a critical hedge, especially if the Fed’s next move surprises markets.
“Gold is the ultimate insurance policy,” Hayes said during the interview. “With the Treasury printing more money to buy back debt, inflation expectations will rise, and gold will benefit.” He also noted that gold’s rally is not just a safe-haven play but a direct response to monetary expansion.
Equities: Why Staying Invested Matters
Hayes also addressed equities, urging investors not to sit on the sidelines. The S&P 500 is up 14% in 2026, and Hayes believes the buyback program could extend this rally. He pointed to the tech sector, particularly AI-related stocks, as a key beneficiary of the liquidity environment.
“If you’re waiting for a pullback to buy, you might miss the move entirely,” Hayes warned. He cited the 2020 post-pandemic rally, where investors who stayed in cash missed a 60% surge in the S&P 500 over 18 months. Hayes argues that the current setup is similar, with unprecedented fiscal stimulus driving asset prices.
Market Context: Upcoming Bitcoin Event in Vancouver
This week, the “Learning Bitcoin 2026” conference is taking place in Vancouver, Canada, from August 22–23, 2026, at FUNK. Coffee Bar. The event focuses on educational workshops for Bitcoin newcomers, highlighting the growing mainstream interest in digital assets. Hayes’s comments come as institutional adoption continues to expand, with Bitcoin ETFs now holding over 1.2 million BTC.
The conference’s timing is notable, as it coincides with the market rally, suggesting that retail and institutional interest are both rising. Hayes’s advice to stay long risk assets aligns with the sentiment at such events, where optimism about Bitcoin’s future remains high.
Risks to the Bullish Thesis
However, not all analysts agree. Some caution that the Treasury buyback program could be reversed if inflation spikes, forcing the Fed to tighten policy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2026 came in at 3.2% year-over-year, above the Fed’s 2% target, and a surprise jump could trigger a sell-off.
Hayes acknowledged these risks but dismissed them, arguing that politicians will prioritize economic growth over inflation control in an election year. “They’ll never let the market crash,” he said, referring to the upcoming midterm elections in November 2026.
Watch the Fed’s September Meeting
The key test for Hayes’s thesis will be the Federal Reserve’s September 16–17, 2026, meeting, where the central bank will decide on interest rates. If the Fed signals a pause in rate hikes, risk assets could rally further. Conversely, a surprise hike could derail the current momentum.
Investors should also watch the Treasury’s next buyback announcement in October 2026, which will confirm whether the program remains at the doubled size. For now, Hayes’s message is clear: staying in cash is a bigger risk than staying invested.
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