Bitcoin’s $100K Forecast May Be Too Low After Record Short Squeeze
- Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick suggests his $100,000 year-end bitcoin forecast may be too conservative following a record short squeeze.
- Record bitcoin short liquidations and renewed ETF demand have increased upside risk, per Kendrick.
- Kendrick now sees a possible year-end run from $79,500 toward bitcoin’s $126,000 record, a potential 58% climb.
- Bitcoin’s sharp recovery has shifted market dynamics, with liquidations reshaping the near-term outlook.
Bitcoin’s recent price action has caught the attention of institutional strategists, with Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick now questioning whether his own year-end target of $100,000 is too low. The catalyst, according to Kendrick, is a record short squeeze that has forced bearish traders to cover positions at an unprecedented pace. Combined with renewed inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the market’s upside risk has increased materially, he argues. The squeeze unfolded as bitcoin rebounded sharply from recent lows, catching many leveraged short sellers off guard. Data from major exchanges showed liquidation volumes spiking to record levels, with hundreds of millions of dollars in short positions wiped out in a single session. This forced buying, in turn, accelerated the price recovery, creating a feedback loop that has pushed bitcoin back toward the upper end of its recent trading range.
Kendrick’s Revised Outlook: A Run Toward $126,000
Kendrick’s updated analysis, shared with clients this week, outlines a scenario where bitcoin could climb from its current level near $79,500 toward its all-time high of $126,000 by year-end. That would represent a gain of roughly 58% from current prices. While he stops short of making a formal new forecast, Kendrick explicitly states that the risk is now skewed to the upside, and that the $100,000 target he previously set may no longer capture the full potential of the current setup. The strategist points to two primary drivers behind his revised thinking. First, the record short liquidations have cleared out a significant amount of bearish positioning, reducing the likelihood of a sharp pullback driven by crowded shorts. Second, ETF demand has reaccelerated, with daily net inflows turning consistently positive after a period of outflows. Institutional investors, according to Kendrick, are treating recent dips as buying opportunities, which provides a sturdy floor under the market.
ETF Flows and Market Structure
The renewed ETF demand is particularly notable because it marks a reversal from the trend seen earlier in the summer. In July and early August, spot bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows as risk assets broadly sold off. That trend has now reversed, with several consecutive days of positive inflows. Analysts tracking these flows note that the buying has been broad-based, spanning both retail and institutional channels, and that it has coincided with a stabilization in broader financial markets.
Liquidation Data Points to Froth
The liquidation data itself is worth examining. According to Coinglass, a crypto derivatives data provider, the recent squeeze saw over $400 million in short positions liquidated within a 24-hour period, a record for this market cycle. Long liquidations, by contrast, were minimal, indicating that the move was driven almost entirely by short covering rather than new speculative longs. This suggests that the rally has solid footing, at least in the near term, as the forced buying has been absorbed without triggering a broader deleveraging event. Looking ahead, Kendrick cautions that the path to $126,000 is not guaranteed. Macroeconomic headwinds, including potential Federal Reserve policy shifts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, could derail the rally. However, he argues that the current setup—characterized by depleted short interest, strong ETF inflows, and a resilient spot market—creates a favorable environment for further gains. For now, the market appears to agree, with bitcoin holding its gains and options markets pricing in a higher probability of a move toward six-figure territory before year-end.
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