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With Bitcoin hovering just above the $100,000 threshold and altcoins losing ground, the question on every trader’s mind is stark: Is the crypto bull run over? Systematic trader Adam Bakay (@abetrade) offers a nuanced analysis that doesn’t quite settle the matter but provides critical insights into the current market dynamics.
On June 22, Bakay shared his expertise, presenting a technically driven yet cautious approach to the current crypto landscape. He acknowledges the looming geopolitical tensions but emphasizes the importance of market positioning and price structures. “Looking at the monthly and weekly timeframes, we are still technically in an uptrend,” Bakay asserts, pointing out that the market has not breached any significant swing lows and has respected the 365-day rolling VWAP during April’s pullback.
However, Bakay expresses concerns over Bitcoin’s inability to hit new all-time highs, similar to its peak in 2021. This observation becomes particularly alarming considering substantial institutional accumulation, with entities like BlackRock holding about 3.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply. This disparity between strong institutional interest and a market struggling to advance has made Bakay adopt a more defensive stance in recent weeks, focusing primarily on short-term trades.
Bakay’s trading perspective contemplates two potential outcomes: a rebound to solidify the $100,000 support zone, likely if Middle Eastern conflicts do not escalate, or a fallback into the $97,000–$95,000 range supported by the 200-day moving average and other technical indicators. Despite the market’s fluctuations, Bakay is not considering any short positions due to his current strategic positioning.
The options market is showing signs of caution, with a 25-delta risk reversal skew around -5, indicating a trend towards negativity but not yet reaching panic levels. Meanwhile, Ethereum and other altcoins are not showing promising signs. Bakay bluntly comments on Ethereum’s failed attempt at a breakout, influenced by the premature hype around “DeFi Summer 2025.” He notes that Ethereum is currently at a pivotal support confluence but its future seems heavily dependent on geopolitical developments.
Altcoins have been underperforming, with Bakay noting a lack of sustained positive momentum and a shift in investor focus towards crypto-related equities, reflecting a more traditional ETF-driven macro trade approach. He highlights Solana’s significant retracement and points out the critical $100 level as a potential area for bids if market conditions worsen.
In conclusion, Bakay advises against heroic market plays, suggesting that it might be wiser to wait for positive news or signs of a reversal on lower timeframes. His analysis underscores the need for caution, tight risk management, and respect for market volatility during uncertain times. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price stands at $101,847, reflecting the precarious nature of current market conditions.
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