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Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Over? See the 99.3% Peak Completion Signal and What It Means for You!
In the latest bitcoin news, Bitcoin (BTC) has hit a rough patch as it retraces toward $111,000 after a tumultuous few days. This represents a 12% decline from its recent high of $126,000, igniting worries among market experts. Many analysts now speculate that the current bull run may be nearing its conclusion, a sentiment that could leave investors reassessing their strategies.
A Countdown to Cycle Peak
On October 14, renowned market analyst CryptoBirb took to social media to announce that the bullish cycle for Bitcoin might be coming to a close, possibly within the next nine days. He referred to the Cycle Peak Countdown indicator, which suggests that Bitcoin is currently 99.3% through its existing cycle, a period that has lasted 1,058 days. CryptoBirb describes this concluding phase as a “textbook shakeout of weak hands,” a pattern often seen before market peaks.
October 24 has been highlighted as a pivotal date, just nine days away, with CryptoBirb asserting that the recent market crash is “right on schedule.” He further elaborated that the market is deeply entrenched in the peak zone, having surpassed the historical window of 518 to 580 days since the last Bitcoin halving.
Shifting Sentiment in the Market
The market sentiment has taken a notable turn, as indicated by the Fear & Greed Index, which has plummeted from 71 to 38. This shift signals a reset from euphoria to fear. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from 67 to 47, suggesting that this emotional washout may set the stage for a final euphoric surge.
Technical indicators, however, present mixed signals. The Average True Range (ATR) has risen to 4,040, indicating increased volatility, while the RSI’s position at 47 implies a momentum reset.
On-Chain Metrics and Institutional Behavior
Recent Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows indicate a shift in institutional strategies. Inflows, which were previously at $627 million, have turned into outflows of $4.5 million. Moreover, Ethereum ETF outflows reached $174.9 million, suggesting that institutional investors are taking profits as retail investors may be poised to jump in due to fear of missing out (FOMO). CryptoBirb aligns this behavior with a typical distribution-to-accumulation transition.
On-chain metrics further illustrate a cooling market. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has decreased from 0.556 to 0.522, while the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) has fallen from 2.45 to 2.15. Such profit-taking activities could be creating the necessary environment for a final euphoric push.
October’s Performance: A Potential Bullish Indicator
When evaluating Bitcoin’s performance in October, it has dipped by 2.09% month-to-date, which starkly contrasts with its historical average increase of 19.78%. This underperformance could actually serve as a bullish indicator, suggesting that a significant movement might still be on the horizon in the closing weeks of the month.
In summary, the current cycle appears to be 99.3% complete. It has already spent 25 days in the peak zone and displayed a reset in sentiment alongside institutional distribution. Moreover, the weak performance in October adds another layer of complexity. If the analyst’s thesis holds true, this blending of factors might culminate in a perfect storm for a final surge before entering a potential new crypto winter.
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