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Is September 21 the Day Bitcoin Hits Bottom? Here’s Why It Could Be a Game-Changer
As the countdown news unfolds, Bitcoin (BTC) faces a notable decline, wiping out recent gains achieved after the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates. After reaching nearly $118,000—just 5% away from its all-time high—the market is now shrouded in uncertainty. Nevertheless, experts maintain a long-term optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, particularly as the pivotal date of September 21 approaches.
Market analyst Timothy Peterson emphasizes that historically, Bitcoin has finished the year higher 70% of the time after September 21, with a median increase exceeding 50%. This date has earned the moniker “Bitcoin Bottom Day,” as it suggests favorable odds for a price increase. Peterson’s analysis indicates that two of the three downturns in Bitcoin’s history occurred during established bear markets in 2018 and 2022. The current market conditions differ significantly, leading Peterson to believe the chances of a price rise are as high as 90% this year.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s historical performance shows a strong likelihood of maintaining its gains six months post-September 21. Peterson estimates that there is at least a 70% probability that Bitcoin will not drop below the $100,000 mark again. This prediction is crucial for investors looking for signs of recovery.
Analysts Warn Of ‘Sell the News’ Bitcoin Phase
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, also points out the impact of the recent 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This adjustment initially boosted Bitcoin’s price, briefly pushing it above $117,000. However, Lee warns that the median projection of only 50 basis points in total cuts for the year might temper optimism, leading to potential volatility as traders recalibrate their strategies. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a dip of 5% to 8% following rate cuts before resuming its upward trend, which could signal a possible “sell the news” phase in the coming days.
Despite the fluctuations, Lee remains optimistic about the macroeconomic environment. He believes that lower yields on money-market funds (MMFs) will likely guide capital toward alternative investments, such as cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is seen as a hedge in this risk-on climate, especially with approximately $7.2 trillion currently held in cash-like instruments.
Looking ahead, Lee predicts consolidation in the near term before Bitcoin targets prices between $123,000 and $150,000, should additional rate cuts occur. Analysts at Bitfinex also share a positive outlook, projecting that with three anticipated rate cuts by year-end and steady inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin could reach between $125,000 and $135,000 by the end of the year. However, they caution that if inflation or economic growth data hinder the Fed’s ability to proceed with further cuts, Bitcoin might stabilize within a range of $110,000 to $115,000. This stabilization might be supported by institutional participation and ETF assets under management.
In conclusion, as we approach September 21, the landscape for Bitcoin appears to be poised for a potential shift. Investors should closely monitor the market dynamics and be prepared for what could be a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s journey. For more insights into the crypto world, check out our latest articles. Additionally, if you’re looking to dive into cryptocurrency trading, consider exploring Binance’s offerings for a comprehensive trading experience.
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