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AMSTERDAM — Dutch payments giant Adyen N.V. saw its stock crater 17.57% Thursday, shedding €203.20 to close at €953.00 — a two-year low — after the company delivered what analysts called a “cautious” 2026 outlook that fell short of Wall Street’s lofty expectations.

The dramatic selloff wiped billions from the fintech unicorn’s market cap and marked the company’s worst single-day decline since its infamous 39% crash in August 2023.

The Numbers Behind the Plunge

Adyen reported H2 2025 net revenue of €1.27 billion, up 17% year-over-year (21% on a constant currency basis). For the full year, revenue hit €2.36 billion — an 18% increase that would be enviable for most companies but disappointing for a growth stock trading at premium multiples.

The killer blow came with 2026 guidance. Adyen forecast net revenue growth of 20-22% for the coming year, while analysts had penciled in 22.8% growth according to LSEG estimates. That seemingly small gap was enough to trigger algorithmic selling and panic among growth investors.

EBITDA margin guidance also underwhelmed. The company expects margins to remain “broadly in line with 2025” at around 53%, rather than expanding toward the 55%+ long-term target.

‘Too Cautious’ for a Premium Stock

“This outlook is underpinned by a strong pipeline,” Adyen insisted in its shareholder letter, citing “continued macroeconomic uncertainty” and softer payment volumes from Asia-Pacific online retailers hit by U.S. tariffs and dollar weakness.

But markets wanted more. Adyen trades at a 46x P/E ratio — a valuation that demands explosive growth. When that growth shows any sign of deceleration, the punishment is severe.

“Historically, Adyen has been priced for perfection,” noted one analyst. “At 46x earnings, there’s no room for ‘good enough’ — you need ‘blowout’ every quarter.”

The Cash App Shadow

Complicating comparisons: a single large-volume customer — widely believed to be Block’s Cash App — has been distorting Adyen’s growth metrics. Excluding this client, processed volume grew 23% YoY; including it, growth was just 12%.

The Cash App relationship carries lower take rates, meaning its volume contributes less to revenue. Adyen has been deliberately shifting toward higher-value enterprise relationships, but the transition creates optical headwinds.

Regional Breakdown: Tariffs Bite

EMEA (58% of revenue): +21% growth — the bright spot
North America (27%): +20%, but moderated by U.S. tariffs and weaker dollar
Asia-Pacific (10%): +14% — the laggard, as Chinese e-commerce exporters face trade barriers
Latin America (5%): +17%, fastest since 2022

The tariff impact was quantified: APAC merchants trading into the U.S. reduced overall growth by approximately 2 percentage points in Q2, with that headwind expected to persist through 2025.

What Analysts Are Saying

The initial 20% plunge to around €1,175 triggered bargain hunting, with the stock recovering to €1,390 before Thursday’s continued slide to €953 — suggesting institutional re-rating rather than panic selling.

The Wolf of Harcourt Street blog rated the report “2 out of 5 — below expectations” but maintained that the long-term thesis remains intact: “When a stock carries a premium valuation ahead of earnings, any lowering of guidance almost inevitably leads to multiple compression.”

Key concern: Adyen holds €12.5 billion in cash (€3.8 billion net of merchant funds) earning just 2% interest with ECB rates slashed. Shareholders are increasingly demanding buybacks or dividends rather than watching cash pile up earning bond-like returns.

Technical Damage

The breakdown below €1,000 is psychologically significant. Adyen shares have now fallen 49% from their November 2021 all-time high of €2,835 and are trading at levels last seen in August 2024.

Support appears around €920-€957, but a breach could open the door to €800 — a level that would value the company at roughly 30x forward earnings, more in line with mature payment processors.

The Bottom Line

Adyen remains a payments powerhouse processing €1.4 trillion annually with 99.9999% uptime and elite clients including Starbucks, Uber, and Nord Security. The company is profitable, growing, and expanding into embedded finance and AI-driven optimization.

But Thursday’s crash is a stark reminder: in today’s market, even 17% revenue growth and 53% EBITDA margins aren’t enough when you’ve promised the moon. For Adyen to reclaim its premium multiple, it needs to prove the tariff headwinds are temporary — and that the Cash App transition is nearly complete.

Until then, expect volatility. The fintech darling has become a value investor’s dream and a growth investor’s nightmare.

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